The virus that causes COVID-19 is called SARS-CoV-2. How many people in your area have been infected?

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in our areas is difficult to assess without more widespread testing. Especially antibody testing.

I’m tracking preliminary research as it becomes available.

News about prevalence

Nearly a third of people in a town near Boston tested positive for antibodies

Apr 18, 2020

People stopped randomly in public for antibody tests showed a surprising infection proportion.

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New antibody research is consistent with the estimates here for number of infections

Apr 17, 2020

Antibody testing in California is roughly consistent with Beach Analytics estimates for Miami Beach.

how-widespread, herd-immunity

Are we there yet?

Apr 14, 2020

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

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Wider infection estimate range

Apr 13, 2020
The range for estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections from the number of COVID-19 infections has changed.
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References

  1. 1. Saltzman J. Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus. The Boston Globe; 17-April-2020 link (Accessed 2020-04-18 19:20)
  2. 2. Russell TW, Hellewell J, Abbott S, et al. Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting. Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; 17-April-2020 link (Accessed 2020-04-17 19:30)
  3. 3. Ng C, Abdelmalek DM. Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known. ABC News; 17-April-2020 link (Accessed 2020-04-17 17:20)